Following Part One where I broke down the four LIV Golf players with the longest odds, here’s a deep dive into Dustin Johnson, Sergio Garcia, and Cameron Smith. If you missed Part One, check that out here:
Dustin Johnson will be making his 16th start at The Masters. In his prior 15, he’s made 11 cuts, posted a low round of 65, and has a scoring average of 71.87.
Notably, in his last five starts he’s missed the cut three times. Even more notably, in his last six starts he’s missed the cut three times but also won one time. Dustin Johnson owns the scoring record for The Masters, though it was played in the fall due to the pandemic affecting the golfing schedule. His 20-under par win is two shots better than the previous record held by Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth.
Best moment at The Masters:
DJ’s weekend at the 2020 Masters was nothing short of a clinic. He shot 11-under in those two rounds, had the best round in the field on both Saturday and Sunday, and set The Masters scoring record by two shots.
Not only was this a unique broadcast in that the energy on the course was radically different, with reduced patrons due to the pandemic, but it was unique because as basically no point during the weekend did it feel like there was another player in contention. It was Dustin Johnson’s week and nobody was going to catch him. Nobody was even going to get close.
2026 form:
DJ’s form in 2026 hasn’t been anything to write home about. Since joining LIV Golf in 2022 he’s seemingly taken a more relaxed approach to professional golf. That’s not to say he’s given up, or isn’t striving to be the best, just that his approach has changed. He’s happy playing less events. He’s healthier, both physically and mentally when he does play.
His best finish so far this year is a tie for 10th in Singapore, which isn’t excellent, but doesn’t concern me in the least for him. I don’t think I’m expecting him to be at the top of the leaderboard week in and week out, but he’s undoubtedly going to be in contention a few times a year.
2026 Masters Expectations:
For most players I’d think that it’s pretty unlikely that they would be in contention for the first time of the year at The Masters, but Dustin Johnson simply isn’t most players. He’s as much of a natural athlete as anyone in the modern game. He’s the perfect example of a guy that you’ll never expect to be in the mix, and then when he is you think “I can’t believe I forgot about that guy”. He’s still got 27 professional wins, multiple majors, and multiple Ryder Cup wins. While he hasn’t won since Las Vegas in 2024, I still don’t plan on counting him out any time he tees it up, his potential really is that high.
What Does Dustin Johnson Winning Look Like?
From the opening tee shot all the way through the end of the event, Dustin Johnson winning in 2026 will serve as a reminder to everybody that doubted him, or everybody that counted him out, that he’s still Dustin Johnson. He’s can turn up any week and beat anybody in the world. It’s something the players are keenly aware of. Strong opening rounds have him in the lead heading into the final round, but with tougher conditions this week than in 2020, his scoring record is well out of reach. He continues his solid play and comfortably wins the event. When Amanda Balionis asks him how it felt to put the green jacket on again, Dustin remarks “Good, I guess”.
Sergio Garcia (+24000, 1¢ on Kalshi)
History at The Masters:
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
T38
T40
CUT
8
T28
T4
CUT
46
CUT
CUT
T38
T45
T35
T12
T8
CUT
T17
T34
WIN
CUT
CUT
ㅤ
CUT
T23
CUT
CUT
CUT
In 2017 Sergio Garcia became the third Spaniard to win The Masters, joining Seve Ballesteros and José María Olazábal. He also became one of seven Low Amateurs to go on to win a Green Jacket, the others being Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Hideki Matsuyama, Jack Nicklaus, Ben Crenshaw, and Cary Middlecoff. In his 26 appearances, Sergio has made the cut 15 times and has a scoring average of 73.13.
Best Moment at The Masters:
Sergio would enter the final round of the 2017 Masters tied with Justin Rose, who both sat one shot clear of Rickie Fowler. Rickie would prove to be a non-factor but Rose and Garcia would have a fantastic duel throughout the round. Ultimately, they would both have birdie putts on the final hole. If either had made it, they would have won. Both missed and the pair returned to the tee for a sudden-death playoff. Rose’s tee shot would fine the pine-straw off the right side of the fairway and he’d be forced to punch out. He’d do just that, but his approach still ended up outside of Garcia’s. A missed par putt meant Sergio had two putts to secure the win, though he’d only need one.
2026 Form:
Though Sergio Garcia’s results thus far in 2026 won’t be what he’d expected, it’s not all bad. He’s got two top 10s on the year, one in Bahrain on the DP World Tour, and one in Hong Kong. He’s been shaky with the putter so far, and that’s something that’s held him back from recent success at Augusta National. In the past five tournaments, Sergio has only gained strokes on the field in putting one time.
2026 Masters Expectations:
Garcia is going to have to get the putter working if he’s going to have success this week. He’s been using a putter that he helped design from a company called Golfyr. It’s a 100% Carbon Hollow-Body putter, and while I’m not sure what that does, it’s very likely going to be the deciding club this week. If he can putt well, there’s no reason he wont end up inside the cut line come Friday afternoon. If not, it’s going to be difficult. Early reports from ANGC are saying the course is already firm, and the rough may be thicker than normal. That’s going to make approach play tougher and put even more stress on the putter. Sergio Garcia has on on LIV Golf each of the past two years, so him contending isn’t far-fetched. With that said, his results in The Masters have been pretty poor.
What Does Sergio Garcia Winning Look Like?
The course is more firm than expected and putts are rolling out much farther than players had prepared for. Sergio, armed with his Golfyr 100% Carbon putter, is perfectly prepared for this. He has an elite putting week and gains strokes on the entire field. This, coupled with his predictably elite ball-striking carries him to his second green jacket. The small Swiss golf company is overrun with orders for their $1,062 carbon putter (righties only, shame).
Cameron Smith (+11000, 1¢ on Kalshi)
History at The Masters:
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
T55
ㅤ
T5
T51
T2
T10
T3
T34
T6
CUT
Cameron Smith loves Augusta National, Augusta National loves Cameron Smith. In his 9 starts he’s made the cut 8 times, has a low round of 66 and a scoring average of 71.76. He’s finished inside the top 10 five times. His only missed cut in The Masters came last year where the course strongly favored accurate drivers, much more than normal, which didn’t play into Cam’s hand.
Best Moment at The Masters:
Though his final round in 2020 wasn’t enough to catch eventual winner Dustin Johnson, and let’s be honest nobody was catching him, it marked the first time that any player had shot four rounds in the 60’s in The Masters. It showcases just how strong of a player he is around this course and the potential that he brings each time he plays here.
2026 Form:
The 2026 season has seen more of the struggles from last year continue for Cam Smith. He hasn’t been able to get consistent feels with the driver and that’s led to him losing a number of strokes on the field each event. Furthermore, his approach game has been uncharacteristically poor, though not as bad in the last couple of events. In his five starts this season he’s finished inside the top ten twice, and his elite putting and short game has been exactly what we’ve all come to enjoy.
2026 Masters Expectations:
If Cam can bring the driving and approach game of years past, which isn’t even really that strong, his elite short game can carry him into contention here. A lackluster second round in Singapore prevented him from contending but he did display a solid game throughout the bag that week. In 2024 he was basically an average ball-striker and average off the tee, and finished tied for 6th. While that’s not a recipe for victory, it shows how much potential is built into the game Cam Smith brings to every event.
What Does Cameron Smith Winning Look Like?
The two week break proves to be exactly what Cameron Smith needed and he’s used that time to iron out the faults that had plagued him early in the season. His ball-striking and driving game is above average, and he leads the field in strokes gained around the greens and putting. This play vaults him right into the mix come Friday, and when the firm conditions over the weekend cause issues for the rest of the field, Cam excels even more. That’s his comfort zone, that’s the kind of golf he loves playing, and it’s the kind of golf he’s the best at playing. He chips and putts his way to a comfortable lead and dons the green jacket Sunday evening. Hahn is served at the 2027 Champions Dinner.
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